The Voice Final iTunes Results

At of the close of voting at 10 AM Eastern Time Tuesday morning, here are unofficial iTunes results for last night’s performances:

2. Danielle Bradbery, “Born to Fly”
3. Michelle Chamuel, “Why”
4. Swon Brothers “Danny’s Song”
7. Swon Brothers, “I Can’t Tell You Why”
8. Michelle Chamuel & Usher, “One”
*9. Danielle Bradbery, “Maybe It Was Memphis”
11. Danielle Bradbery & Blake Shelton, “Timber, I’m Falling In Love”
25. Michelle Chamuel, “I Knew You Were Trouble”
35. Swon Brothers & Blake Shelton, “Celebrity”

Analysis:

-Ok, let me explain this as best I understand it. The top-10 iTunes bonus for this week only applies to each contestant’s ‘new’ performance, and all 3 made the top-10. iTunes votes are also cumulative throughout the season, so all sales made in the past (including those made last night for the “reprise” performance) count as one vote. The “reprise” performances were not re-released on iTunes, so the Swons’ “Danny’s Song” is actually a bit of fools’ gold. They just performed that song last week, so of course it’s going to be higher on iTunes, because it was already fairly high on iTunes going in. Danielle & Michelle picked songs from earlier in the season, so theoretically those already had their runs on iTunes, and are now getting a second wind. Danielle in particular picked a song from over a month ago (“Maybe It Was Memphis) and brought it back into the top-10, which is extremely impressive.

The Swons are going to get killed by their duet with Blake. Not only did their new performance finish lowest among the three finalists (although 7th is still highly respectable), their duet lagged WELL behind Michelle and Danielle. (edit: Twitter informs me that duets do not count towards voting) Again, “Danny’s Song” looks like a big win for them, but I suspect it’s fool’s gold when you factor in cumulative voting.

-Michelle did everything she could and nearly played Danielle to a draw. Her new performance (“Why”) placed 3rd to Danielle’s 2nd, her duet (“One”) narrowly beat Danielle’s, 8th to 11th. But her reprise (“I Knew You Were Trouble”) didn’t come close, finishing 25th to Danielle’s 9th. Given that Danielle had a non-negligible lead on cumulative votes going in (no one really now how big of a lead, just that she had one), I don’t see how Michelle overtakes her unless phone/Internet voting is HEAVILY in her favor, and I just don’t see why that would be the case.

Therefore, my FINAL PREDICTION for season 4 of ‘The Voice’ is…

1. Danielle Bradbery
2. Michelle Chamuel
3. The Swon Brothers

(edit: although without the duet factoring into voting, the Swons could very well surpass Michelle)

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6 comments

  1. – Itunes top 10 multiplier bonus still in effect. Never heard where it wasn’t, of course it is. Don’t alter rules for finale.
    – Duo’s with coaches don’t count in voting, think about it, wouldn’t be fair, not a solo performance. So cancel Michelles 9th place top 10 result, and don’t worry about the Swon’s Celebrity – irrelevant
    – Reprises are not released because of confusion, all eligible songs are ‘studio’ versions anyway. So rebumping a song into top 10, if resung during a new voting period, is vital to winning, Michelle only got her original song “Trouble” to 25, a terrible result considering both Danielle & Swons top 10, and multiplier hit.
    The end result, and the only thing that is clear, Michelle is finishing 3rd.

    • Actually, last season they did alter the rules for the final and canceled the times ten bonus completely. I don’t know if that will happen this time or not, but there’s a precedent for it.

      Danielle won. Surprise! 😀 Really, second or third…is pretty irrelevant. Michele’s going to be golden anyway. Not winning frees her up to keep working with Usher – and he works alot faster than The Voice. I expect she’ll have a single out in the next 3 months.

    • According to NBC’s site, “There will be no iTunes Bonus available to the artists in connection with voting for the finale.” So NONE of them will get the bonus if their songs are in the Top 10 this week. It’ll just be a cumulative vote for ALL downloads they’ve had since the season started (even outside of the voting window). On NBC’s Vote Help page, it says, “The audience vote consists of the cumulative number of votes received during the finale’s voting window by telephone votes, online votes and Sprint SMS text message votes, in addition to the Cumulative iTunes Vote Total. So the playing field is a bit more level without that 10x factor. Kyle, you’re right though. If Danielle was constantly in the top 10, then her cumulative votes will be higher no matter what, but who knows how many people are on Facebook voting away and on the phone. I didn’t know it was a 10-vote maximum on the phone. Just found that out. I guess they just check the numbers and knock out any additional votes the same way they do with Facebook. But another commenter on a past board said super users will vote from various Facebook accounts. It’s not like everybody has one phone number so I guess a super user could do that, too. All I know is what I said before. Sasha was never raking them in on iTunes but her fans were raking in votes on FB and the phone to get her to last so long. Michelle’s could possibly do the same.

      At this point, I’d be happy if either The Swon Brothers or Michelle won. I don’t think they will, but honestly I’m just impressed that you actually voted.

  2. Your comment Bonus is cancelled for the finale. Tough to find but good job. But I can tell you that still doesn\’t bode well for Michelle who didn\’t crack the top 20 with one of her eligible songs, as her duet with Usher simply doesn’t count for votes. I\’m still betting the true person who has a shot to beat Danielle, and just might, is the Swons, with Michelle in 3rd. We\’ll see. Looking forward to the finale.

    • Here’s the point I was trying to make about the Swons’ “Danny’s Song” ranking being misleading. Nobody knows the exact formula that iTunes uses to calculate its Top 200 Singles, but it’s believed to be some kind of rolling average. Because the original “Danny’s Song” performance occurred just last week, it’s ranking is likely benefiting HEAVILY from votes that have already been counted. Michelle’s performance occurred a few weeks ago, meaning that the ranking for “I Knew You Were Trouble” is barely (if at all) influenced by its original sales. Those past sales have already been counted toward her cumulative vote total for the finale.

      So the situation, as I best understand it, is that it is not immediately clear that the Swon Brothers did better than Michelle last night, despite appearances. They DEFINITELY might have, but I don’t think it’s as clear-cut as the ranking suggest.

      The one thing that’s clear, in my reading of the situation, is that Danielle is winning tonight. So really, none of this other talk matters!

      • To clarify my own point, because it’s kind of hard to make: hypothetically, let’s say that both the Swons’ “Danny’s Boy” and Michelle’s “I Knew You Were Trouble” tallied 1 million iTunes sales the week when they were initially performed, and 500k sales last night. Because the Swons’ sales for the original week came more recently, they would be factored much more heavily into the iTunes top-200 calculation, meaning that the Swons would be ranked considerably higher at the moment even though both received the same number of votes.

        Again, this isn’t to say that I think Michelle necessary did better, just that it’s unclear.

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